Tendencia de largo plazo y variación estacional de los incendios forestales en los biomas brasileños: Un enfoque estocástico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v15i84.1402Keywords:
Bayesian modeling, Brazilian biomes, long-term trends, Poisson model, stochastic variation, wildfiresAbstract
Este estudio aborda la creciente frecuencia de los incendios forestales en los biomas brasileños; para ello, se utilizó un modelo Bayesiano Estructural de Poisson. Se identificaron las tendencias a largo plazo, el comportamiento estacional y el impacto de determinadas variables meteorológicas en la ocurrencia de incendios forestales en los siguientes biomas: Amazonía, Caatinga, Cerrado, Bosque Atlántico, Pampa y Pantanal. Se observaron tendencias temporales no lineales en todos los biomas, con incrementos anuales variables entre 1999-2020: 5.5 % en Pampa, Pantanal 4.9 %, Catinga 3.0 %, Amazonía 2.3 %, Bosque Atlántico y Cerrado 2.2%. Los patrones estacionales estuvieron presentes en todos los biomas, con similitudes entre Amazonía, Catinga, Cerrado y Bosque Atlántico, mientras que la Pampa y el Pantanal mostraron un patrón bimodal. Factores ambientales como la evapotranspiración, las precipitaciones y la temperatura influyeron significativamente en el surgimiento de incendios en distintos biomas. Los resultados de este estudio aportan información valiosa sobre los patrones de incendios y su relación con los factores ambientales en los biomas brasileños, lo cual ayudará en el desarrollo de las estrategias de gestión y prevención de incendios.
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