Climate change scenarios (CMIP-5) for three protected natural areas in the Transversal Neovolcanic belt

Authors

  • Ulises Manzanilla Quiñonez Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Linares, Nuevo León, México.
  • Oscar Alberto Aguirre Calderón Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Linares, Nuevo León, México.
  • Javier Jiménez-Pérez
  • Eduardo Javier Treviño-Garza Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Linares, Nuevo León, México.
  • José Israel Yerena-Yamallel Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Linares, Nuevo León, México.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v9i50.255

Keywords:

Climate analysis, increase in temperature, forest ecosystems, future scenarios, GCM, GIS

Abstract

Due to climate change, precipitation and temperature patterns will cause significant changes in the ecosystems of the world. The tool used to simulate future climate is the Global Circulation Models (GCM), which are used to generate future climate scenarios. The objective of this study was to estimate climate scenarios for 2045-2069 for the Pico de Orizaba natural protected areas (ANP), Nevado de Toluca and Volcán Nevado de Colima. The monthly climatic layers at 1 km2 were used for the present and future of the CRNMCM5 and GDFL_CM3 MCG with a radioactive forcing (RCP) of 4.5 (constant CO2 emissions) and 8.5 (increasing CO2 emissions). The layers were trimmed to the size of the ANP, and the scale was adjusted from 1 km2 to 30 m. The current and future climate was estimated and the differences between the two were calculated. Various climate change scenarios were generated. Results for 2045-2069 indicate a decrease in precipitation between 18 and 52 mm for Pico de Orizaba, 61 to 99 mm for Nevado de Toluca and 27 to 38 mm for Volcán Nevado de Colima; increase in average annual temperature of 1.32 °C to 1.67 °C (Pico de Orizaba), 1.30 °C to 1.76 °C (Nevado de Toluca) and 0.91 °C to 1 °C (Volcán Nevado de Colima). Changes in temperature and precipitation could lead to more frequent forest fires, increased incidence of forest pests and reduced reload of aquifers.

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Author Biography

Oscar Alberto Aguirre Calderón, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León Linares, Nuevo León, México.

El Dr. Aguirre obtuvo el grado de Ingeniero Agrónomo especialista en Bosques por la Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Chapingo, Estado de México, en 1984, y doctorado por la Universidad de Götingen, Alemania en 1989. Ha sido becario de la Fundación Alexander von Humboldt y del Servicio Alemán de Intercambio Académico en Alemania.

Ingresó a la Facultad de Ciencias Forestales en 1989,  donde actualmente es profesor titular "D" definitivo, perfil PROMEP y nivel II en el Sistema Nacional de Investigadores.

Sus líneas de investigación incluyen básicamente: Caracterización de Ecosistemas Forestales, Manejo Sustentable de Ecosistemas Forestales y Modelos para Toma de Decisiones en Manejo de Recursos Naturales. Sus contribuciones se cuentan entre las pioneras en la caracterización cuantitativa de la estructura de ecosistemas forestales en México. Es miembro de la Academia Nacional de Ciencias Forestales y de la Red Internacional de Manejo Sostenible de Ecosistemas Terrestres. Fue Presidente de la Sociedad Mexicana de Recursos Forestales.

Vol. 9, Núm. 50

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Published

2018-11-22

How to Cite

Manzanilla Quiñonez, Ulises, Oscar Alberto Aguirre Calderón, Javier Jiménez-Pérez, Eduardo Javier Treviño-Garza, and José Israel Yerena-Yamallel. 2018. “Climate Change Scenarios (CMIP-5) for Three Protected Natural Areas in the Transversal Neovolcanic Belt”. Revista Mexicana De Ciencias Forestales 9 (50). México, ME. https://doi.org/10.29298/rmcf.v9i50.255.

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 50 (2018)

Section

Scientific article

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